Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
