Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
